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What to Make of the Surge in Dual-Use Dollars: Who Wins - and Who Just Spins?
With the U.S. Space Force commanding a budget nearly twice the size of NASA’s, billions are pouring into defense-driven space — but only a select few will genuinely capitalize. While defense dollars attract significant attention, the route from headline figures to actual returns is often misunderstood and fraught with challenges.
Moderated by Ryan Duffy, Head of BD at Array Labs and Editor in Chief of Per Aspera (cofounded with Dan Goldin), this panel features Aaron Burnett, CEO of Mach 33, a research-driven asset manager. Burnett will be joined on stage by two prominent industry figures (a startup founder and an industry executive) to candidly dissect and clarify:
- How data-driven analysis identifies which startups meaningfully benefit from defense dollars versus those merely riding hype.
- Nuanced strategies to align VC cycles with defense procurement schedules, underscored by concrete case studies (such as Mach 33 leading Portal Space's seed round).
- Navigating fiscal years, appropriation delays, and midstream reprioritizations mean startups and funds must adapt dynamically. What stage-appropriate playbooks work?
- A surprising number of allocators over-index on defense adjacency, falling into portfolio diversification traps. Our panel deconstructs how concentrated exposure can backfire, and presents frameworks for finding equilibrium.
- What should an LP or VC look for in pitch decks? How can startups structure milestone-based defense engagement? What metrics—beyond technical readiness—matter for both military partners and commercial backers?
This session promises to deliver the signature mark of a VC - contrarian takes - with empirical research and battle-tested, operator-driven insights. Investors, founders, and government officials wrestling with defense-capital dynamics in space will leave equipped with calibrated tools and memorable, actionable strategies—not just talking points.
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